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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 17 games
59%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 17 games
76%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
sayuw · 14 games
43%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
sayuw · 13 games
77%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Squad1x · 13 games
54%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Fng · 13 games
77%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Kiritych · 12 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 10 games
80%

Heroic

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 17 games
71%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
KJ · 10 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 9 games
67%
Lion
Lionsignature
Scofield · 9 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
Davai · 8 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 8 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
KJ · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tiny
Scofield · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
359 picks · 312 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
324 picks · 302 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
320 picks · 482 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
265 picks · 368 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
248 picks · 457 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
247 picks · 314 bans
56%
Techies
Techies
247 picks · 165 bans
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
244 picks · 139 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 71%
Hero pool strength51% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:25
Virtus.pro 51%Heroic 49%
The model gave 51% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 52:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckSquad1x
60% · 128 games47% · 53 games
WeaverK1
Weaver
Alchemist
AlchemistKiritych
53% · 115 games44% · 161 game
Void Spirit4nalog
Void Spirit
Doom
DoomNoticed
57% · 195 games45% · 91 game
KunkkaDavai
Kunkka
Enigma
EnigmaFng
60% · 76 games44% · 246 games
EnchantressKJ
Enchantress
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsayuw
52% · 126 games40% · 89 games
HoodwinkScofield
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct38:16
Virtus.pro 50%Heroic 50%
The model gave 50% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 40:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenKiritych
40% · 74 games67% · 32 games
WeaverK1
Weaver
Batrider
BatriderNoticed
41% · 96 games49% · 56 games
Zeus4nalog
Zeus
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSquad1x
48% · 132 games50% · 149 games
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
Centaur Warrunner
Mirana
MiranaFng
61% · 61 game58% · 156 games
Crystal MaidenKJ
Crystal Maiden
Tiny
Tinysayuw
45% · 134 games50% · 104 games
GyrocopterScofield
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 51%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2