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Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HFloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Marci
Marcisignature
yamich · 24 games
83%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Xakoda · 18 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
yamich · 17 games
65%
Doom
Doomoften banned
DM · 16 games
56%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Xakoda · 14 games
64%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Xakoda · 14 games
64%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
RAMZES666 · 12 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
DM · 12 games
58%

HF

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Funn1k · 12 games
33%
Tiny
Tiny
hAze · 11 games
36%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Kaori · 9 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
SOhY · 7 games
29%
Phoenix
Phoenix
ArrOw · 7 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
hAze · 7 games
43%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
TA2000 · 7 games
29%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SOhY · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
361 picks · 580 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
342 picks · 237 bans
48%
Undying
Undying
293 picks · 526 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
260 picks · 165 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
254 picks · 405 bans
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
249 picks · 492 bans
55%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
219 picks · 291 bans
52%
Enigma
Enigma
205 picks · 693 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 40%
Hero pool strength63% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:18
Virtus.pro 62%HF 38%
The model gave 62% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 41:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingKoma`
50% · 117 games47% · 212 games
Terrorbladexannii
Terrorblade
Tiny
TinySquad1x
46% · 284 games52% · 102 games
LycanActor
Lycan
Broodmother
BroodmotherNoticed
44% · 38 games56% · 112 games
Primal Beasttoshiyb
Primal Beast
Mirana
Miranasayuw
47% · 143 games51% · 166 games
Skywrath Mageweebian
Skywrath Mage
Enchantress
EnchantressDukalis
56% · 112 games48% · 102 games
Treant ProtectorSOhY
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed39:46
Virtus.pro 63%HF 37%
The model gave 63% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by HF in 53:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSquad1x
42% · 114 games51% · 48 games
Slarkxannii
Slark
Lifestealer
LifestealerKoma`
59% · 26 games53% · 59 games
SlardarActor
Slardar
Clockwerk
ClockwerkNoticed
50% · 74 games48% · 187 games
Tusktoshiyb
Tusk
Mirana
Miranasayuw
54% · 89 games45% · 35 games
Techiesweebian
Techies
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenDukalis
47% · 49 games59% · 23 games
VenomancerSOhY
Venomancer
Game 3prediction correct30:7
Virtus.pro 62%HF 38%
The model gave 62% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 31:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerKoma`
51% · 54 games49% · 179 games
Terrorbladexannii
Terrorblade
Pangolier
PangolierSquad1x
51% · 178 games56% · 89 games
LycanActor
Lycan
Broodmother
BroodmotherNoticed
47% · 56 games53% · 245 games
Tusktoshiyb
Tusk
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenDukalis
45% · 99 games53% · 90 games
Earthshakerweebian
Earthshaker
Tiny
Tinysayuw
47% · 344 games51% · 128 games
DisruptorSOhY
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 74%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3