The International 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Jakiro
Fly · 30 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 21 game
Tiny
Hellscream · 21 game
Muertaoften banned
Timado · 19 games
Void Spirit
Abed · 19 games
Puckoften banned
Abed · 18 games
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 17 games
Primal Beast
SabeRLight- · 17 games
Inner Circle
Tiny
Jing · 24 games
Hoodwink
Fernans · 23 games
Tusk
Fernans · 23 games
Warlock
Se · 22 games
Puckoften banned
Supream^ · 18 games
Jakiro
Se · 17 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 16 games
Slardaroften banned
laise · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
643 picks · 443 bans
Rubick
591 picks · 334 bans
Phoenix
472 picks · 553 bans
Pangolier
457 picks · 660 bans
Tiny
433 picks · 378 bans
Ember Spirit
354 picks · 522 bans
Storm Spirit
346 picks · 406 bans
Puck
345 picks · 1030 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 55%
Hero pool strength56% Inner Circle
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total75% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:28
Virtus.pro 62%Inner Circle 38%
The model gave 62% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 47:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerTimado
Nature's Prophet423
Storm SpiritAbed
Timbersawlaise
UndyingSabeRLight-
Ember SpiritStojkov
Keeper of the LightHellscream
HoodwinkFernans
Winter WyvernFly
EnchantressSe
Game 2prediction correct54:23
Virtus.pro 63%Inner Circle 37%
The model gave 63% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 52:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreTimado
Timbersawlaise
Earth SpiritAbed
Clinkz423
UndyingSabeRLight-
Storm SpiritStojkov
Dark WillowHellscream
RubickFernans
Winter WyvernFly
AxeSe
Game 3prediction correct37:16
Virtus.pro 61%Inner Circle 39%
The model gave 61% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 39:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendTimado
Kez423
PangolierAbed
Undyinglaise
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
InvokerStojkov
Dark WillowHellscream
HoodwinkFernans
Winter WyvernFly
EnchantressSe
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 75%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3