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ESL One Fall 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Lion
Lionsignature
Save- · 20 games
70%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Save- · 12 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
DM · 10 games
70%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
1ls · 10 games
90%
Tiny
Tinysignature
gpK~ · 8 games
75%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
1ls · 7 games
86%
Invoker
Invokersignature
gpK~ · 7 games
71%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
1ls · 7 games
43%

LGD Gaming

Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 32 games
75%
Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 30 games
80%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 25 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
XinQ · 24 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 23 games
74%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 21 game
76%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 20 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
y` · 18 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
411 picks · 189 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
357 picks · 133 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
296 picks · 602 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
281 picks · 361 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
278 picks · 464 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
276 picks · 616 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
266 picks · 243 bans
54%
Lina
Lina
254 picks · 363 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 65%
Hero pool strength57% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total50% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:13
Virtus.pro 50%LGD Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 42:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerNightfall
45% · 60 games52% · 156 games
JuggernautAme
Juggernaut
Razor
RazorgpK~
51% · 51 game35% · 16 games
Spirit BreakerXiao8
Spirit Breaker
Tidehunter
TidehunterDM
52% · 108 games47% · 69 games
UndyingFaith_bian
Undying
Phoenix
Phoenix1ls
54% · 240 games56% · 182 games
MiranaXinQ
Mirana
Lion
LionSave-
49% · 165 games46% · 201 game
Death Prophety`
Death Prophet
Game 2prediction correct34:21
Virtus.pro 54%LGD Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 39:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidNightfall
56% · 34 games46% · 69 games
GyrocopterAme
Gyrocopter
Void Spirit
Void SpiritgpK~
50% · 113 games29% · 16 games
Spirit BreakerXiao8
Spirit Breaker
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerDM
57% · 34 games43% · 110 games
Keeper of the LightXinQ
Keeper of the Light
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSave-
63% · 29 games46% · 85 games
Sand KingFaith_bian
Sand King
Phoenix
Phoenix1ls
57% · 73 games57% · 3 games
Silencery`
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 50%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2