?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tinysignature
yamich · 17 games
65%
Marci
Marcisignature
yamich · 15 games
80%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 14 games
64%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
yamich · 14 games
57%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gpK~ · 14 games
79%
Bane
Banesignature
Xakoda · 13 games
77%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 13 games
85%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Xakoda · 12 games
75%

LGD Gaming

Razor
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 14 games
86%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 13 games
77%
Tiny
Tinysignature
XinQ · 12 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 11 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 11 games
91%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
y` · 11 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 10 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 10 games
90%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
689 picks · 491 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
484 picks · 986 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
397 picks · 502 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
381 picks · 194 bans
51%
Marci
Marci
363 picks · 675 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
331 picks · 547 bans
48%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
313 picks · 287 bans
55%
Monkey King
Monkey King
304 picks · 633 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 68%
Hero pool strength53% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total76% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:27
Virtus.pro 35%LGD Gaming 65%
The model gave 65% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 27:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinagpK~
50% · 126 games61% · 14 games
Lone DruidAme
Lone Druid
Doom
DoomDM
57% · 125 games44% · 123 games
Keeper of the LightFaith_bian
Keeper of the Light
Kunkka
KunkkaRAMZES666
49% · 170 games50% · 122 games
Winter WyvernNothingToSay
Winter Wyvern
Tusk
Tuskyamich
55% · 102 games50% · 292 games
TinyXinQ
Tiny
Dazzle
DazzleXakoda
48% · 105 games44% · 77 games
Marciy`
Marci
Game 2prediction correct14:25
Virtus.pro 37%LGD Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 36:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautRAMZES666
52% · 45 games39% · 103 games
UrsaAme
Ursa
Timbersaw
TimbersawDM
51% · 94 games44% · 108 games
Night StalkerFaith_bian
Night Stalker
Puck
PuckgpK~
50% · 235 games42% · 239 games
Void SpiritNothingToSay
Void Spirit
Enigma
Enigmayamich
63% · 46 games53% · 66 games
Cheny`
Chen
Snapfire
SnapfireXakoda
55% · 154 games55% · 58 games
EarthshakerXinQ
Earthshaker
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 76%
Series resultLGD Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2