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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Matreshka Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 17 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Noticed · 15 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Fng · 12 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
sayuw · 11 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
sayuw · 11 games
27%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Fng · 11 games
55%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 10 games
80%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 10 games
70%

Matreshka Team

Techies
Techiessignature
dark · 8 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Lagoona · 7 games
43%
Rubick
Rubick
Lagoona · 7 games
57%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Retsu · 7 games
57%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
NattyNarwhal · 6 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Retsu · 6 games
50%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Retsu · 6 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
meLes · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
552 picks · 591 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
459 picks · 229 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
420 picks · 770 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
370 picks · 673 bans
48%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
361 picks · 362 bans
48%
Morphling
Morphling
339 picks · 714 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
334 picks · 816 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
332 picks · 710 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:7
Virtus.pro 57%Matreshka Team 43%
The model gave 57% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 27:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanNoticed
52% · 121 game39% · 25 games
Phantom AssassinRetsu
Phantom Assassin
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKiritych
38% · 46 games55% · 177 games
PangolierNattyNarwhal
Pangolier
Puck
PuckSquad1x
56% · 198 games45% · 41 game
Centaur WarrunnermeLes
Centaur Warrunner
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsayuw
52% · 90 games52% · 257 games
RubickLagoona
Rubick
Chen
ChenFng
50% · 78 games48% · 33 games
Ancient Apparitiondark
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct24:9
Virtus.pro 53%Matreshka Team 47%
The model gave 53% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 27:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenKiritych
41% · 65 games50% · 8 games
MuertaRetsu
Muerta
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSquad1x
48% · 220 games48% · 74 games
EarthshakerNattyNarwhal
Earthshaker
Lycan
LycanNoticed
44% · 88 games57% · 97 games
Dark SeermeLes
Dark Seer
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesayuw
46% · 117 games54% · 117 games
Keeper of the LightLagoona
Keeper of the Light
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritFng
46% · 18 games57% · 212 games
Clockwerkdark
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 63%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2