Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Mind Gamesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Winter Wyvernsignature
1ls · 15 games
Lionsignature
Save- · 14 games
Phoenixsignature
1ls · 10 games
Banesignature
Save- · 8 games
Earthshaker
DM · 8 games
Medusasignature
Nightfall · 8 games
Kunkkaoften banned
DM · 7 games
Linaoften banned
gpK~ · 7 games
Mind Games
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
361 picks · 525 bans
Snapfire
319 picks · 188 bans
Bane
310 picks · 247 bans
Weaver
298 picks · 674 bans
Monkey King
260 picks · 749 bans
Tidehunter
248 picks · 400 bans
Disruptor
230 picks · 149 bans
Ember Spirit
230 picks · 314 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 33%
Hero pool strength57% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:18
Virtus.pro 87%Mind Games 13%
The model gave 87% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 36:04.
Game 2prediction correct35:18
Virtus.pro 87%Mind Games 13%
The model gave 87% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 42:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 87%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2