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FISSURE Universe: Episode 7 · BO2
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:1
MOUZloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 30 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 27 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
65%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Daxak · 22 games
55%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Rein · 21 game
57%
Puck
Pucksignature
Abed · 20 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 20 games
80%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 18 games
44%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 24 games
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 23 games
61%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 16 games
50%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 14 games
93%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kami · 14 games
57%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
43%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 13 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
476 picks · 247 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
465 picks · 454 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
358 picks · 960 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
324 picks · 371 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
306 picks · 151 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
292 picks · 223 bans
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
291 picks · 474 bans
56%
Batrider
Batrider
289 picks · 634 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total52% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:24
Virtus.pro 50%MOUZ 50%
The model gave 50% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 1:01:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaTimado
41% · 65 games53% · 399 games
BeastmasterBOOM
Beastmaster
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerDaxak
50% · 184 gameslittle data
KezMidOne
Kez
Pangolier
PangolierAbed
48% · 250 games48% · 49 games
BloodseekerCrystallis
Bloodseeker
Snapfire
SnapfireAntares
42% · 130 games54% · 267 games
PugnaSeleri
Pugna
Enchantress
EnchantressFly
47% · 129 games59% · 43 games
Pudgeyamich
Pudge
Game 2prediction missed18:20
Virtus.pro 52%MOUZ 48%
The model gave 52% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by MOUZ in 35:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightTimado
57% · 209 games43% · 62 games
Troll WarlordCrystallis
Troll Warlord
Timbersaw
TimbersawDaxak
44% · 113 games49% · 393 games
Storm SpiritMidOne
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierAbed
45% · 268 games38% · 61 game
BroodmotherBOOM
Broodmother
Chen
ChenFly
68% · 91 game50% · 112 games
Bounty Hunteryamich
Bounty Hunter
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAntares
54% · 171 game51% · 224 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2