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The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Marci
Marcisignature
yamich · 21 game
81%
Tiny
Tinysignature
yamich · 18 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 17 games
71%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Xakoda · 17 games
71%
Doom
Doomoften banned
DM · 16 games
56%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Xakoda · 15 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gpK~ · 15 games
73%
Bane
Banesignature
Xakoda · 13 games
77%

Natus Vincere

Puck
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 13 games
69%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Solo · 12 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
No[o]ne · 12 games
42%
Tiny
Tiny
swedenstrong · 11 games
45%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 9 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Solo · 9 games
44%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
laise · 9 games
78%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Solo · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
739 picks · 570 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
509 picks · 1033 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
485 picks · 641 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
453 picks · 800 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
375 picks · 416 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
335 picks · 163 bans
49%
Zeus
Zeus
329 picks · 390 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
308 picks · 589 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 56%
Hero pool strength58% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total77% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:6
Virtus.pro 66%Natus Vincere 34%
The model gave 66% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 32:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PaingpK~
50% · 269 games44% · 79 games
GyrocopterV-Tune
Gyrocopter
Razor
RazorRAMZES666
52% · 217 games54% · 251 game
Death Prophetlaise
Death Prophet
Doom
DoomDM
47% · 124 games45% · 263 games
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
Ember Spirit
Marci
Marciyamich
59% · 68 gameslittle data
Primal Beastswedenstrong
Primal Beast
Disruptor
DisruptorXakoda
52% · 148 games49% · 233 games
IoSolo
Io
Game 2prediction correct27:17
Virtus.pro 66%Natus Vincere 34%
The model gave 66% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 45:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenRAMZES666
59% · 30 games54% · 170 games
Templar AssassinV-Tune
Templar Assassin
Lina
LinagpK~
49% · 124 games47% · 66 games
Lycanlaise
Lycan
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightDM
47% · 103 games46% · 52 games
WindrangerNo[o]ne
Windranger
Phoenix
Phoenixyamich
51% · 63 games58% · 46 games
Earthshakerswedenstrong
Earthshaker
Disruptor
DisruptorXakoda
46% · 89 games48% · 75 games
UndyingSolo
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 77%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2