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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tiny
sayuw · 22 games
36%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 20 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Dukalis · 16 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
sayuw · 16 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
krylat · 15 games
53%
Mirana
Mirana
sayuw · 14 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Xakoda · 13 games
62%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sayuw · 12 games
50%

Natus Vincere

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
swedenstrong · 12 games
50%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangersignature
V-Tune · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 10 games
40%
Silencer
Silencer
Solo · 10 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
xsvampire · 9 games
11%
Visage
Visageoften banned
laise · 9 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
nicky`cool · 8 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
No[o]ne · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
874 picks · 608 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
624 picks · 433 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
531 picks · 544 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
528 picks · 432 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
523 picks · 839 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
467 picks · 324 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
462 picks · 973 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
417 picks · 307 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 24%
Hero pool strength52% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total65% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:24
Virtus.pro 58%Natus Vincere 42%
The model gave 58% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 1:11:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonKiritych
42% · 54 games51% · 54 games
Zeusmellojul
Zeus
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSquad1x
52% · 113 games52% · 48 games
SlarkShigetsu
Slark
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNoticed
49% · 167 games55% · 39 games
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
Centaur Warrunner
Pugna
Pugnasayuw
44% · 65 games46% · 190 games
Rubickxsvampire
Rubick
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionFng
44% · 19 games60% · 87 games
IoMalady
Io
Game 2prediction missed15:38
Virtus.pro 59%Natus Vincere 41%
The model gave 59% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 45:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetKiritych
49% · 295 games50% · 68 games
SlarkShigetsu
Slark
Tinker
TinkerSquad1x
49% · 14 games45% · 122 games
Zeusmellojul
Zeus
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNoticed
58% · 299 games47% · 160 games
Dragon KnightMalik
Dragon Knight
Snapfire
Snapfiresayuw
48% · 440 games47% · 437 games
Rubickxsvampire
Rubick
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterFng
60% · 15 games53% · 276 games
UndyingMalady
Undying
Game 3prediction correct27:27
Virtus.pro 57%Natus Vincere 43%
The model gave 57% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 57:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageKiritych
58% · 33 games49% · 82 games
SniperShigetsu
Sniper
Kunkka
KunkkaSquad1x
50% · 104 games49% · 146 games
BroodmotherMalik
Broodmother
Tidehunter
TidehunterNoticed
56% · 107 games50% · 94 games
Rikimellojul
Riki
Rubick
Rubicksayuw
46% · 471 game47% · 401 game
Snapfirexsvampire
Snapfire
Undying
UndyingFng
51% · 287 games49% · 279 games
ClockwerkMalady
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 65%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3