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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 18 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Noticed · 15 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Fng · 12 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
sayuw · 12 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
sayuw · 11 games
27%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Fng · 11 games
55%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 10 games
80%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 10 games
70%

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubicksignature
xsvampire · 18 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 16 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
mellojul · 8 games
63%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Malady · 8 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malik · 7 games
86%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Malik · 7 games
86%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Malik · 6 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Malady · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
514 picks · 548 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
448 picks · 226 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
410 picks · 713 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
368 picks · 628 bans
48%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
345 picks · 346 bans
47%
Morphling
Morphling
342 picks · 711 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
331 picks · 796 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
326 picks · 518 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 79%
Hero pool strength54% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total63% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:42
Virtus.pro 40%Natus Vincere 60%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 1:11:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeKiritych
47% · 169 games45% · 51 game
SvenShigetsu
Sven
Earthshaker
EarthshakerSquad1x
55% · 50 games54% · 95 games
Void Spiritmellojul
Void Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordNoticed
45% · 88 games56% · 73 games
Dark SeerMalik
Dark Seer
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsayuw
47% · 29 games52% · 107 games
Nature's ProphetMalady
Nature's Prophet
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritFng
48% · 23 games55% · 33 games
Lionxsvampire
Lion
Game 2prediction missed31:10
Virtus.pro 44%Natus Vincere 56%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 34:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingKiritych
53% · 225 games53% · 82 games
SlarkShigetsu
Slark
Earthshaker
EarthshakerSquad1x
50% · 97 games54% · 115 games
DawnbreakerMalik
Dawnbreaker
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderNoticed
50% · 103 games44% · 221 game
Death Prophetmellojul
Death Prophet
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetFng
54% · 356 games46% · 432 games
Rubickxsvampire
Rubick
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsayuw
47% · 94 games49% · 25 games
Vengeful SpiritMalady
Vengeful Spirit
Game 3prediction missed29:8
Virtus.pro 40%Natus Vincere 60%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 33:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKiritych
54% · 19 games52% · 101 game
SvenShigetsu
Sven
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNoticed
46% · 43 games50% · 83 games
UnderlordMalik
Underlord
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSquad1x
50% · 67 games58% · 123 games
Void Spiritmellojul
Void Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressFng
46% · 113 games57% · 34 games
GrimstrokeMalady
Grimstroke
Rubick
Rubicksayuw
48% · 218 games44% · 119 games
Shadow Demonxsvampire
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 63%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3