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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Antares · 13 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kiritych · 13 games
46%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Rein · 11 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Antares · 10 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Noticed · 10 games
80%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 10 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Squad1x · 8 games
25%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Noticed · 7 games
86%

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Zayac · 19 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 18 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
BOOM · 14 games
43%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 14 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Sancity · 14 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Sancity · 13 games
62%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Zayac · 13 games
38%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Nefrit · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
470 picks · 385 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
431 picks · 549 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
389 picks · 495 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
381 picks · 617 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
381 picks · 203 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
370 picks · 417 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 585 bans
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
342 picks · 873 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total59% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:28
Virtus.pro 45%Natus Vincere 55%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 59:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinNande
47% · 246 games52% · 382 games
GyrocopterShad
Gyrocopter
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNoticed
51% · 176 games49% · 431 game
PangolierSancity
Pangolier
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSquad1x
49% · 196 games49% · 275 games
Primal BeastBOOM
Primal Beast
Batrider
Batriderprblms
49% · 505 games60% · 50 games
IoKaori
Io
Enchantress
EnchantressRein
43% · 335 games55% · 320 games
LionQBFY
Lion
Game 2prediction correct4:23
Virtus.pro 45%Natus Vincere 55%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 33:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinNande
47% · 167 games45% · 127 games
Chaos KnightShad
Chaos Knight
Tiny
TinySquad1x
50% · 366 games61% · 71 game
LycanBOOM
Lycan
Tidehunter
TidehunterNoticed
57% · 60 games50% · 240 games
MagnusSancity
Magnus
Clockwerk
ClockwerkRein
51% · 303 games45% · 352 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Muerta
Muertaprblms
50% · 225 games49% · 331 game
LionQBFY
Lion
Game 3prediction missed28:17
Virtus.pro 45%Natus Vincere 55%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 41:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinNande
49% · 192 games50% · 330 games
GyrocopterShad
Gyrocopter
Invoker
InvokerSquad1x
51% · 240 games57% · 321 game
TinySancity
Tiny
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNoticed
47% · 198 games52% · 208 games
MagnusBOOM
Magnus
Batrider
Batriderprblms
42% · 492 games55% · 117 games
Ogre MagiKaori
Ogre Magi
Undying
UndyingRein
50% · 59 games48% · 205 games
Dark WillowQBFY
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 59%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3