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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kiritych · 13 games
46%
Underlord
Underlord
Noticed · 12 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Fng · 11 games
55%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Kiritych · 10 games
80%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 9 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Antares · 8 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
aik · 8 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fng · 8 games
75%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lion
Riddys · 22 games
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 18 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 17 games
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Niku · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 14 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Riddys · 14 games
43%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
pma · 13 games
62%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Niku · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
440 picks · 586 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
377 picks · 397 bans
52%
Luna
Luna
327 picks · 392 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
326 picks · 457 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
306 picks · 585 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
289 picks · 156 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
275 picks · 327 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
262 picks · 774 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:4
Virtus.pro 48%Natus Vincere Junior 52%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 28:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightKiritych
47% · 160 games50% · 115 games
Medusagotthejuice
Medusa
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSquad1x
52% · 75 games55% · 229 games
Beastmasterpma
Beastmaster
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNoticed
40% · 70 games58% · 62 games
ViperNiku
Viper
Phoenix
Phoenixaik
46% · 141 game47% · 180 games
MuertaDaze
Muerta
Clockwerk
ClockwerkAntares
54% · 195 games52% · 55 games
Ogre MagiRiddys
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct42:22
Virtus.pro 52%Natus Vincere Junior 48%
The model gave 52% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 54:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand KingSquad1x
50% · 188 games44% · 249 games
Morphlinggotthejuice
Morphling
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightKiritych
55% · 333 games47% · 354 games
Pangolierpma
Pangolier
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNoticed
47% · 237 games49% · 116 games
Earth SpiritNiku
Earth Spirit
Clockwerk
ClockwerkAntares
50% · 337 games52% · 303 games
HoodwinkDaze
Hoodwink
Lich
Lichaik
64% · 27 games50% · 100 games
PugnaRiddys
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 51%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2