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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kiritych · 12 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
aik · 11 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Rein · 11 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Noticed · 9 games
89%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Squad1x · 8 games
25%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Antares · 7 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Noticed · 6 games
83%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
jesv · 6 games
67%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 29 games
62%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
85%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 20 games
70%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 20 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Niku · 20 games
80%
Lich
Lich
Riddys · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 17 games
41%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
pma · 17 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
421 picks · 340 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
408 picks · 541 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
362 picks · 379 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
355 picks · 183 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
352 picks · 443 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 583 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
332 picks · 815 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
330 picks · 348 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 71%
Hero pool strength54% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total57% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed44:22
Virtus.pro 46%Natus Vincere Junior 54%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 51:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSquad1x
55% · 203 games52% · 42 games
Spectregotthejuice
Spectre
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinNande
52% · 161 game57% · 448 games
TinyNiku
Tiny
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNoticed
45% · 232 games55% · 248 games
Magnuspma
Magnus
Lion
Lionprblms
46% · 283 games49% · 392 games
ClockwerkZayac
Clockwerk
Batrider
BatriderRein
41% · 357 games48% · 106 games
LichRiddys
Lich
Game 2prediction correct21:39
Virtus.pro 46%Natus Vincere Junior 54%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 42:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSquad1x
43% · 86 games50% · 188 games
Monkey Kinggotthejuice
Monkey King
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterNande
49% · 244 games44% · 237 games
Beastmasterpma
Beastmaster
Enigma
EnigmaNoticed
53% · 132 games52% · 184 games
Ember SpiritNiku
Ember Spirit
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanprblms
41% · 28 games58% · 84 games
LichRiddys
Lich
Clockwerk
ClockwerkRein
49% · 307 games59% · 104 games
Nyx AssassinZayac
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction correct18:42
Virtus.pro 46%Natus Vincere Junior 54%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 52:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackNoticed
49% · 76 games57% · 272 games
PuckNiku
Puck
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNande
51% · 277 games48% · 116 games
Lifestealergotthejuice
Lifestealer
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSquad1x
45% · 115 games51% · 242 games
Doompma
Doom
Muerta
Muertaprblms
43% · 110 games53% · 29 games
Bounty HunterZayac
Bounty Hunter
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonRein
53% · 306 games50% · 225 games
Crystal MaidenRiddys
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 57%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3