?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Batrider
Batridersignature
prblms · 13 games
69%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
aik · 12 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Rein · 12 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 11 games
82%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 11 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Noticed · 9 games
78%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Kiritych · 9 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 9 games
56%

Nigma Galaxy

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 26 games
38%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 23 games
43%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 20 games
85%
Magnus
Magnussignature
SumaiL · 20 games
60%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 19 games
68%
Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 18 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
GH · 17 games
59%
Lion
Lionsignature
OmaR · 17 games
76%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
544 picks · 766 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
442 picks · 328 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
435 picks · 709 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
413 picks · 405 bans
53%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
402 picks · 707 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
394 picks · 894 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
390 picks · 1049 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
378 picks · 520 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:29
Virtus.pro 49%Nigma Galaxy 51%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 28:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTA2000
50% · 167 games51% · 83 games
Nature's ProphetSumaiL
Nature's Prophet
Huskar
HuskarLorenof
51% · 39 games56% · 149 games
Monkey KingGhost
Monkey King
Abaddon
AbaddonDaxak
45% · 76 games44% · 99 games
Centaur WarrunnerNo!ob
Centaur Warrunner
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOneJey
52% · 201 game51% · 226 games
MuertaOmaR
Muerta
Jakiro
JakiroRein
52% · 180 games47% · 106 games
Elder TitanGH
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed25:11
Virtus.pro 48%Nigma Galaxy 52%
The model gave 52% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 40:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTA2000
50% · 249 games46% · 104 games
MedusaGhost
Medusa
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightLorenof
49% · 458 games56% · 414 games
TinySumaiL
Tiny
Abaddon
AbaddonDaxak
40% · 92 games55% · 340 games
PhoenixGH
Phoenix
Muerta
MuertaOneJey
50% · 458 games55% · 222 games
MagnusNo!ob
Magnus
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionRein
47% · 35 games49% · 212 games
Dark WillowOmaR
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct13:41
Virtus.pro 49%Nigma Galaxy 51%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 44:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaTA2000
45% · 57 games48% · 76 games
TinkerSumaiL
Tinker
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightLorenof
45% · 333 games46% · 213 games
SvenGhost
Sven
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDaxak
47% · 174 games58% · 215 games
Sand KingNo!ob
Sand King
Muerta
MuertaOneJey
51% · 209 games51% · 448 games
TinyOmaR
Tiny
Jakiro
JakiroRein
51% · 236 games56% · 57 games
Ancient ApparitionGH
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 52%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3