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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 28 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 22 games
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 20 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 20 games
55%
Puck
Pucksignature
Abed · 18 games
72%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 17 games
59%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Antares · 16 games
38%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Abed · 15 games
40%

Nigma Galaxy

Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 24 games
42%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 24 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 23 games
52%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
SumaiL · 18 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 18 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 18 games
56%
Pugna
Pugna
GH · 17 games
41%
Bane
Banesignature
OmaR · 16 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
548 picks · 902 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
525 picks · 399 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
481 picks · 653 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
476 picks · 605 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
407 picks · 855 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
370 picks · 597 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
356 picks · 581 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
356 picks · 501 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total69% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:13
Virtus.pro 40%Nigma Galaxy 60%
The model gave 60% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 47:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaTimado
48% · 39 games46% · 242 games
Nature's Prophetrincyq
Nature's Prophet
Puck
PuckSerenada
42% · 357 games60% · 178 games
EarthshakerSumaiL
Earthshaker
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
46% · 167 games48% · 196 games
BristlebackNo!ob
Bristleback
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonHellscream
52% · 198 games53% · 78 games
Keeper of the LightGH
Keeper of the Light
Chen
ChenFly
56% · 172 games49% · 239 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct9:40
Virtus.pro 38%Nigma Galaxy 62%
The model gave 62% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 26:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterTimado
45% · 164 games51% · 167 games
Shadow Fiendrincyq
Shadow Fiend
Leshrac
LeshracSerenada
46% · 122 games52% · 115 games
UnderlordNo!ob
Underlord
Brewmaster
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
55% · 65 games50% · 167 games
Void SpiritSumaiL
Void Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowHellscream
40% · 138 games63% · 170 games
Naga SirenGH
Naga Siren
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanFly
46% · 165 games52% · 35 games
GrimstrokeOmaR
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction correct13:35
Virtus.pro 41%Nigma Galaxy 59%
The model gave 59% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 39:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinTimado
55% · 176 games47% · 388 games
Terrorbladerincyq
Terrorblade
Tiny
TinySerenada
49% · 308 games48% · 125 games
InvokerSumaiL
Invoker
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
53% · 119 games41% · 289 games
MarsNo!ob
Mars
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightHellscream
65% · 73 games52% · 76 games
Nyx AssassinOmaR
Nyx Assassin
Jakiro
JakiroFly
48% · 344 games47% · 142 games
DazzleGH
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 69%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3