Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 11 · BO5
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:3series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:3
No Sorrywin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Queen of Painoften banned
gpK~ · 14 games
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 13 games
Ember Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 12 games
Banesignature
Xakoda · 11 games
Beastmastersignature
DM · 10 games
Abaddonsignature
1ls · 9 games
Marssignature
DM · 9 games
Weaversignature
yamich · 9 games
No Sorry
Bane
BLACKARXANGEL · 35 games
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 32 games
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 28 games
Hoodwink
y0nd · 26 games
Tinyoften banned
layme · 26 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 25 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 22 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
463 picks · 644 bans
Bane
442 picks · 275 bans
Tiny
438 picks · 464 bans
Sand King
418 picks · 569 bans
Storm Spirit
394 picks · 628 bans
Dragon Knight
385 picks · 465 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 557 bans
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 584 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:49
Virtus.pro 51%No Sorry 49%
The model gave 51% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by No Sorry in 45:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerRAMZES666
MedusaKami
Storm SpiritgpK~
TinyWorick
ViperDM
Sand KingLastHero-
Doomyamich
Miranay0nd
SnapfireXakoda
BaneBLACKARXANGEL
Game 2prediction correct27:18
Virtus.pro 55%No Sorry 45%
The model gave 55% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 44:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassingpK~
KunkkaKami
RazorRAMZES666
Ember SpiritWorick
BeastmasterDM
MarsLastHero-
Snapfireyamich
Hoodwinky0nd
UndyingXakoda
BaneBLACKARXANGEL
Game 3prediction missed25:26
Virtus.pro 53%No Sorry 47%
The model gave 53% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by No Sorry in 51:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingRAMZES666
JuggernautKami
LeshracgpK~
SlardarLastHero-
Dragon KnightDM
Storm SpiritWorick
AbaddonXakoda
Skywrath Magey0nd
Snapfireyamich
UndyingBLACKARXANGEL
Game 4prediction missed24:33
Virtus.pro 53%No Sorry 47%
The model gave 53% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by No Sorry in 45:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeRAMZES666
Phantom AssassinKami
UnderlordDM
TinyWorick
Storm SpiritgpK~
TidehunterLastHero-
Hoodwinkyamich
Skywrath Magey0nd
PugnaXakoda
BaneBLACKARXANGEL
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 56%
Series resultNo Sorry 1:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4