?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:1
nounsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
sayuw · 12 games
58%
Techies
Techies
Fng · 11 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Noticed · 10 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 10 games
40%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
sayuw · 9 games
44%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kiritych · 7 games
43%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 7 games
86%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 7 games
71%

nouns

Techies
Techiessignature
Husky · 15 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lelis · 13 games
77%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
YamSun · 9 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Gunnar · 8 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
Gunnar · 8 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
Moo · 7 games
71%
Pugna
Pugna
Lelis · 7 games
29%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Magesignature
YamSun · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
263 picks · 133 bans
42%
Pangolier
Pangolier
207 picks · 433 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
204 picks · 267 bans
50%
Sven
Sven
184 picks · 259 bans
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
174 picks · 369 bans
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
172 picks · 321 bans
51%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
172 picks · 105 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
167 picks · 227 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:42
Virtus.pro 46%nouns 54%
The model gave 54% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 1:00:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierSquad1x
48% · 214 games50% · 41 game
Chaos KnightK1
Chaos Knight
Sven
SvenKiritych
58% · 81 game50% · 208 games
Primal BeastGunnar
Primal Beast
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNoticed
49% · 72 games55% · 78 games
Spirit BreakerMoo
Spirit Breaker
Jakiro
JakiroFng
47% · 32 games45% · 119 games
Dark WillowLelis
Dark Willow
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsayuw
48% · 79 games51% · 32 games
Ancient ApparitionYamSun
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed30:14
Virtus.pro 47%nouns 53%
The model gave 53% on nouns — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 38:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordKiritych
44% · 60 games54% · 89 games
SvenK1
Sven
Earthshaker
EarthshakerSquad1x
47% · 119 games46% · 55 games
Centaur WarrunnerMoo
Centaur Warrunner
Dazzle
DazzleNoticed
54% · 26 games50% · 188 games
PangolierGunnar
Pangolier
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsayuw
46% · 112 games47% · 106 games
PhoenixYamSun
Phoenix
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFng
55% · 216 games57% · 95 games
Skywrath MageLelis
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 61%
Accuracy by game1 of 2