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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO1
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:1
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:1
OGwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 21 game
48%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 19 games
74%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Kiritych · 14 games
71%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
sayuw · 14 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Squad1x · 14 games
57%
Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 13 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 13 games
69%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Fng · 12 games
75%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 18 games
67%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 13 games
54%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Yuragi · 11 games
55%
Io
Iosignature
Ceb · 11 games
64%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
bzm · 11 games
45%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 11 games
64%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 11 games
73%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
377 picks · 332 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
328 picks · 317 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
327 picks · 476 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
277 picks · 403 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
275 picks · 381 bans
56%
Techies
Techies
269 picks · 188 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
263 picks · 145 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
260 picks · 190 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% OG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:39
Virtus.pro 44%OG 56%
The model gave 56% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 42:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSquad1x
51% · 212 games49% · 177 games
LunaTimado
Luna
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNoticed
51% · 163 games52% · 364 games
Primal Beastbzm
Primal Beast
Morphling
MorphlingKiritych
44% · 187 games55% · 132 games
KunkkaWisper
Kunkka
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsayuw
51% · 242 games50% · 171 game
HoodwinkAri
Hoodwink
Enchantress
EnchantressFng
49% · 240 games47% · 200 games
LionCeb
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 63%
Series resultOG 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1