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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Lorenof · 16 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 15 games
73%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 15 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Daxak · 11 games
73%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Noticed · 11 games
64%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Rein · 11 games
45%
Batrider
Batridersignature
prblms · 10 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
TA2000 · 10 games
40%

OG

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 16 games
38%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nine · 13 games
46%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Nine · 12 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nine · 12 games
42%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 11 games
27%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ceb · 11 games
27%
Muerta
Muerta
Daze · 11 games
18%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
23savage · 11 games
27%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
464 picks · 457 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
403 picks · 567 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
324 picks · 148 bans
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
284 picks · 586 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
278 picks · 513 bans
47%
Muerta
Muerta
271 picks · 151 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
269 picks · 490 bans
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
267 picks · 565 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 25%
Hero pool strength62% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:32
Virtus.pro 62%OG 38%
The model gave 62% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 1:03:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeDaxak
49% · 331 game50% · 343 games
TinyStormstormer
Tiny
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
56% · 396 games47% · 128 games
Phantom AssassinShad
Phantom Assassin
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinV-Tune
57% · 198 games37% · 279 games
PangolierMikSa`
Pangolier
Silencer
SilencerRein
49% · 121 game51% · 214 games
MuertaDaze
Muerta
Bane
BaneAntares
62% · 48 games47% · 130 games
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct36:27
Virtus.pro 60%OG 40%
The model gave 60% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 1:00:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightLorenof
39% · 345 games53% · 141 game
Nature's ProphetShad
Nature's Prophet
Lifestealer
LifestealerV-Tune
54% · 126 games49% · 433 games
TinyStormstormer
Tiny
Enigma
EnigmaDaxak
57% · 122 games49% · 195 games
MagnusMikSa`
Magnus
Jakiro
JakiroRein
50% · 362 games53% · 154 games
RingmasterDaze
Ringmaster
Slark
SlarkAntares
48% · 71 game49% · 103 games
Ancient ApparitionKidaro
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 64%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2