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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 3:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 3:0
One Moveloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 18 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Noticed · 15 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Fng · 13 games
54%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
sayuw · 12 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
sayuw · 11 games
27%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Fng · 11 games
55%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kiritych · 10 games
40%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 10 games
80%

One Move

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 14 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 14 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Gilgir · 13 games
38%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 12 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Panto · 11 games
55%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Gilgir · 11 games
27%
Mirana
Mirana
Gilgir · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
487 picks · 518 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
448 picks · 218 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
403 picks · 673 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 621 bans
49%
Morphling
Morphling
337 picks · 706 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
332 picks · 774 bans
49%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
323 picks · 329 bans
47%
Undying
Undying
320 picks · 519 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total59% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:4
Virtus.pro 53%One Move 47%
The model gave 53% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 26:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenKiritych
47% · 60 games51% · 33 games
Troll WarlordMunkushi~
Troll Warlord
Lycan
LycanNoticed
46% · 81 game53% · 33 games
Earth SpiritAinkrad
Earth Spirit
Invoker
InvokerSquad1x
43% · 63 games55% · 149 games
DoomAfterLife
Doom
Chen
ChenFng
50% · 58 games55% · 142 games
BatriderPanto
Batrider
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesayuw
44% · 167 games54% · 72 games
PugnaXakoda
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct22:15
Virtus.pro 54%One Move 46%
The model gave 54% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 37:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenKiritych
49% · 114 games57% · 215 games
PangolierAinkrad
Pangolier
Earthshaker
EarthshakerSquad1x
48% · 116 games56% · 104 games
SlarkMunkushi~
Slark
Underlord
UnderlordNoticed
51% · 121 game49% · 75 games
DawnbreakerAfterLife
Dawnbreaker
Enchantress
EnchantressFng
47% · 368 games52% · 218 games
MiranaPanto
Mirana
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsayuw
43% · 100 games48% · 207 games
DisruptorXakoda
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct32:14
Virtus.pro 55%One Move 45%
The model gave 55% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 30:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordKiritych
47% · 75 games48% · 92 games
Queen of PainAinkrad
Queen of Pain
Earthshaker
EarthshakerSquad1x
50% · 104 games50% · 75 games
DawnbreakerAfterLife
Dawnbreaker
Death Prophet
Death ProphetNoticed
43% · 241 game49% · 142 games
Monkey KingMunkushi~
Monkey King
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsayuw
52% · 94 games53% · 178 games
EnchantressPanto
Enchantress
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFng
52% · 168 games57% · 195 games
DisruptorXakoda
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 59%
Series resultVirtus.pro 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3