The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PARI PARNIloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Marcisignature
yamich · 20 games
Tinysignature
yamich · 18 games
Doomoften banned
DM · 15 games
Skywrath Magesignature
Xakoda · 15 games
Templar Assassinsignature
gpK~ · 15 games
Dazzlesignature
Xakoda · 14 games
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 14 games
Banesignature
Xakoda · 13 games
PARI PARNI
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
727 picks · 568 bans
Puck
511 picks · 1028 bans
Dawnbreaker
478 picks · 629 bans
Marci
439 picks · 781 bans
Winter Wyvern
368 picks · 412 bans
Snapfire
340 picks · 164 bans
Zeus
327 picks · 380 bans
Razor
310 picks · 592 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 41%
Hero pool strength59% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total87% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:11
Virtus.pro 87%PARI PARNI 13%
The model gave 87% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 33:41.
Game 2prediction correct31:8
Virtus.pro 87%PARI PARNI 13%
The model gave 87% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 26:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 87%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2