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DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Pipsqueak+4loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 28 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
61%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Daxak · 22 games
50%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Rein · 21 game
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Daxak · 20 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 17 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 17 games
41%
Tusk
Tusk
Antares · 17 games
47%

Pipsqueak+4

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 7 games
86%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
xn丶e · 7 games
71%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 7 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 6 games
67%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Kidaro · 6 games
83%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 4 games
100%
Pudge
Pudge
Nande · 4 games
75%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Palantimos · 4 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
296 picks · 737 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
279 picks · 255 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
273 picks · 173 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
259 picks · 679 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
256 picks · 275 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
250 picks · 243 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
247 picks · 571 bans
57%
Marci
Marci
246 picks · 682 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 76%
Hero pool strength59% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:19
Virtus.pro 49%Pipsqueak+4 51%
The model gave 51% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 36:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaTimado
46% · 129 games56% · 147 games
MorphlingNande
Morphling
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendAbed
49% · 202 games50% · 227 games
Puckxn丶e
Puck
Mars
MarsDaxak
46% · 175 games53% · 85 games
UndyingPalantimos
Undying
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAntares
46% · 162 games56% · 170 games
EnchantressKidaro
Enchantress
Disruptor
DisruptorFly
45% · 103 games53% · 142 games
LionKaori
Lion
Game 2prediction correct25:18
Virtus.pro 50%Pipsqueak+4 50%
The model gave 50% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 42:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinTimado
56% · 169 games43% · 78 games
BrewmasterPalantimos
Brewmaster
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDaxak
52% · 201 game44% · 85 games
Leshracxn丶e
Leshrac
Earthshaker
EarthshakerAbed
57% · 106 games45% · 160 games
MarsNande
Mars
Phoenix
PhoenixFly
55% · 146 games44% · 118 games
SilencerKidaro
Silencer
Techies
TechiesAntares
57% · 3 games49% · 184 games
LionKaori
Lion
Game 3prediction missed21:10
Virtus.pro 49%Pipsqueak+4 51%
The model gave 51% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 44:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenTimado
53% · 164 games47% · 245 games
TerrorbladeNande
Terrorblade
Earthshaker
EarthshakerAbed
53% · 184 games49% · 273 games
Puckxn丶e
Puck
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDaxak
55% · 368 games45% · 149 games
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
Centaur Warrunner
Chen
ChenFly
59% · 108 games50% · 164 games
Shadow DemonKaori
Shadow Demon
Snapfire
SnapfireAntares
42% · 122 games47% · 115 games
SilencerKidaro
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 53%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3