Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:2series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PuckChampwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Lion
Save- · 12 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
1ls · 11 games
Phoenixsignature
1ls · 10 games
Banesignature
Save- · 8 games
Earthshaker
DM · 8 games
Medusasignature
Nightfall · 8 games
Beastmastersignature
DM · 7 games
Linaoften banned
gpK~ · 7 games
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
365 picks · 536 bans
Bane
330 picks · 252 bans
Snapfire
322 picks · 200 bans
Weaver
309 picks · 692 bans
Monkey King
254 picks · 747 bans
Tidehunter
245 picks · 388 bans
Disruptor
237 picks · 151 bans
Ember Spirit
230 picks · 325 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:10
Virtus.pro 69%PuckChamp 31%
The model gave 69% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 30:27.
Game 2prediction missed10:23
Virtus.pro 69%PuckChamp 31%
The model gave 69% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 38:53.
Game 3prediction missed27:32
Virtus.pro 69%PuckChamp 31%
The model gave 69% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 43:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 69%
Series resultPuckChamp 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3