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BetBoom Xmas Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PuckChamploss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Marci
Marcisignature
yamich · 22 games
82%
Tiny
Tiny
yamich · 22 games
59%
Doom
Doomoften banned
DM · 16 games
56%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Xakoda · 16 games
63%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Xakoda · 15 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Xakoda · 13 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 12 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Xakoda · 12 games
42%

PuckChamp

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
372 picks · 360 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
340 picks · 326 bans
59%
Marci
Marci
252 picks · 494 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
252 picks · 572 bans
52%
Undying
Undying
242 picks · 454 bans
51%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
233 picks · 596 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
226 picks · 131 bans
47%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
218 picks · 144 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:31
Virtus.pro 58%PuckChamp 42%
The model gave 58% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 35:07.
Game 2prediction correct33:15
Virtus.pro 58%PuckChamp 42%
The model gave 58% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 1:02:09.
Game 3prediction correct42:34
Virtus.pro 58%PuckChamp 42%
The model gave 58% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 1:13:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 58%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3