ONE Esports Singapore Major 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Quincy Crewloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Lionsignature
Save- · 6 games
Oracleoften banned
1ls · 5 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Nightfall · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
1ls · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
1ls · 4 games
Marsoften banned
DM · 4 games
Tidehunteroften banned
DM · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
DM · 4 games
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
447 picks · 1006 bans
Void Spirit
420 picks · 610 bans
Mars
369 picks · 650 bans
Death Prophet
338 picks · 641 bans
Earth Spirit
331 picks · 283 bans
Phoenix
269 picks · 380 bans
Rubick
264 picks · 176 bans
Wraith King
261 picks · 433 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 55%
Hero pool strength60% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:19
Virtus.pro 54%Quincy Crew 46%
The model gave 54% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Quincy Crew in 34:45.
Game 2prediction correct18:9
Virtus.pro 54%Quincy Crew 46%
The model gave 54% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 27:11.
Game 3prediction correct34:16
Virtus.pro 54%Quincy Crew 46%
The model gave 54% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 34:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 54%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3