FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:1series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 0:1
RRiftwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 28 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Daxak · 22 games
Silenceroften banned
Rein · 21 game
Dark Seersignature
Daxak · 20 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 17 games
Storm Spirit
Lorenof · 17 games
Tusk
Antares · 17 games
Rift
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
303 picks · 192 bans
Puck
295 picks · 658 bans
Dark Willow
260 picks · 113 bans
Tusk
256 picks · 251 bans
Dawnbreaker
251 picks · 611 bans
Nature's Prophet
249 picks · 513 bans
Batrider
244 picks · 677 bans
Marci
244 picks · 521 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:45
Virtus.pro 92%Rift 8%
The model gave 92% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Rift in 54:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 92%
Series resultRift 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1