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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Sigma.YNTloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tiny
sayuw · 22 games
36%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 20 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
sayuw · 17 games
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Dukalis · 16 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
krylat · 16 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
sayuw · 14 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Xakoda · 13 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Noticed · 12 games
42%

Sigma.YNT

Tiny
Tiny
queezy · 24 games
58%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
VANSKOR · 17 games
47%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 16 games
38%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
v1olent- · 13 games
54%
Doom
Doomsignature
kur0patbI4 · 12 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
foryou · 12 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 10 games
40%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kur0patbI4 · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
920 picks · 625 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
643 picks · 452 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
548 picks · 876 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
542 picks · 436 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
538 picks · 543 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
491 picks · 333 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
473 picks · 1035 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
446 picks · 324 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Sigma.YNT
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:8
Virtus.pro 60%Sigma.YNT 40%
The model gave 60% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 30:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageKiritych
54% · 38 games45% · 236 games
TerrorbladeDarkLord^
Terrorblade
Dark Seer
Dark SeerNoticed
57% · 51 game52% · 162 games
Broodmotherkur0patbI4
Broodmother
Tiny
TinySquad1x
51% · 483 games51% · 285 games
Puckforyou
Puck
Snapfire
Snapfiresayuw
45% · 278 games50% · 273 games
Monkey Kingqueezy
Monkey King
Enchantress
EnchantressFng
51% · 174 games49% · 68 games
AbaddonVANSKOR
Abaddon
Game 2prediction correct26:6
Virtus.pro 62%Sigma.YNT 38%
The model gave 62% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 24:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageKiritych
53% · 42 games52% · 179 games
Nature's Prophetkur0patbI4
Nature's Prophet
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNoticed
50% · 250 games46% · 213 games
Death Prophetforyou
Death Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSquad1x
59% · 172 games52% · 96 games
UrsaDarkLord^
Ursa
Enchantress
EnchantressFng
48% · 269 games46% · 258 games
Snapfirequeezy
Snapfire
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesayuw
55% · 136 games39% · 123 games
Crystal MaidenVANSKOR
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 72%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2