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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6 · BO2
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:2
series probability
7%93%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 27 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
61%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Rein · 21 game
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Daxak · 21 game
52%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Daxak · 20 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 16 games
69%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 16 games
44%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 15 games
53%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 38 games
66%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 29 games
66%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 27 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 23 games
43%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
miCKe · 23 games
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 22 games
68%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Boxi · 22 games
41%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
iNSaNiA · 22 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
558 picks · 583 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
380 picks · 222 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
367 picks · 425 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
343 picks · 335 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
335 picks · 497 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
326 picks · 858 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
323 picks · 684 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
304 picks · 857 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 49%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:29
Virtus.pro 21%Team Liquid 79%
The model gave 79% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 29:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanDaxak
56% · 119 games46% · 244 games
DoommiCKe
Doom
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterV-Tune
53% · 317 games54% · 193 games
Sand KingSabeRLight-
Sand King
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSerenada
52% · 380 games47% · 298 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageAntares
44% · 14 games48% · 366 games
BatriderBoxi
Batrider
Tusk
TuskPuppey
44% · 467 games50% · 196 games
WarlockiNSaNiA
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct28:34
Virtus.pro 22%Team Liquid 78%
The model gave 78% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaV-Tune
46% · 172 games53% · 319 games
DoommiCKe
Doom
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSerenada
49% · 226 games54% · 49 games
HuskarNisha
Huskar
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerDaxak
47% · 189 games55% · 190 games
Sand KingSabeRLight-
Sand King
Disruptor
DisruptorPuppey
50% · 62 games54% · 217 games
PugnaiNSaNiA
Pugna
Tusk
TuskAntares
47% · 313 games46% · 187 games
InvokerBoxi
Invoker
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 93%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2