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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spiritloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Lion
Lionsignature
Save- · 14 games
79%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
1ls · 9 games
89%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
DM · 8 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
1ls · 7 games
57%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Nightfall · 6 games
83%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DM · 5 games
40%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
gpK~ · 5 games
80%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
1ls · 4 games
75%

Team Spirit

Mirana
Miranasignature
Mira · 12 games
92%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 11 games
64%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 10 games
70%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
Miposhka · 10 games
70%
Puck
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 9 games
89%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 8 games
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Miposhka · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
410 picks · 998 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
349 picks · 576 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
344 picks · 527 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
341 picks · 351 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
327 picks · 178 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
323 picks · 702 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
302 picks · 222 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
268 picks · 277 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 78%
Hero pool strength51% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:15
Virtus.pro 44%Team Spirit 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 41:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlinggpK~
47% · 59 games60% · 21 game
MedusaYatoro
Medusa
Tiny
TinyNightfall
52% · 62 games58% · 32 games
InvokerTORONTOTOKYO
Invoker
Underlord
UnderlordDM
47% · 29 games51% · 105 games
MarsCollapse
Mars
Dark Willow
Dark WillowSave-
44% · 44 games58% · 28 games
Shadow DemonMira
Shadow Demon
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition1ls
52% · 44 games41% · 52 games
ClockwerkMiposhka
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct10:30
Virtus.pro 46%Team Spirit 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 37:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyNightfall
47% · 95 games54% · 69 games
Wraith KingYatoro
Wraith King
Morphling
MorphlinggpK~
47% · 104 games50% · 95 games
Void SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Void Spirit
Axe
AxeDM
50% · 40 games51% · 115 games
MarsCollapse
Mars
Windranger
WindrangerSave-
57% · 40 games48% · 95 games
Death ProphetMiposhka
Death Prophet
Oracle
Oracle1ls
46% · 157 games55% · 62 games
MiranaMira
Mirana
Game 3prediction missed24:23
Virtus.pro 44%Team Spirit 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 35:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidNightfall
52% · 25 games54% · 70 games
Wraith KingYatoro
Wraith King
Invoker
InvokergpK~
46% · 56 games46% · 38 games
TidehunterCollapse
Tidehunter
Lina
LinaSave-
50% · 52 games53% · 75 games
MarsTORONTOTOKYO
Mars
Magnus
MagnusDM
57% · 28 games54% · 32 games
MiranaMira
Mirana
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden1ls
40% · 58 games50% · 4 games
WarlockMiposhka
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 56%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3