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ESL One Fall 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spiritloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Lion
Lionsignature
Save- · 19 games
68%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Save- · 12 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
DM · 11 games
73%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
1ls · 8 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
gpK~ · 8 games
75%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
1ls · 8 games
88%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
1ls · 7 games
86%
Invoker
Invokersignature
gpK~ · 7 games
71%

Team Spirit

Mirana
Miranasignature
Mira · 30 games
80%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 23 games
61%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 22 games
55%
Puck
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 22 games
77%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 19 games
79%
Lion
Lionsignature
Miposhka · 17 games
71%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 17 games
82%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Mira · 15 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
403 picks · 189 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
354 picks · 136 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
299 picks · 597 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
284 picks · 623 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
280 picks · 357 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
271 picks · 233 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
269 picks · 470 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
258 picks · 426 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 59%
Hero pool strength56% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total67% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:5
Virtus.pro 39%Team Spirit 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 28:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterNightfall
47% · 85 games51% · 42 games
Keeper of the LightCollapse
Keeper of the Light
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassingpK~
58% · 109 games50% · 24 games
SvenYatoro
Sven
Tidehunter
TidehunterDM
54% · 126 games45% · 250 games
PuckTORONTOTOKYO
Puck
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanSave-
45% · 159 games48% · 93 games
TinyMira
Tiny
Omniknight
Omniknight1ls
62% · 21 game49% · 91 game
RubickMiposhka
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed31:10
Virtus.pro 39%Team Spirit 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 33:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNightfall
51% · 111 games44% · 85 games
Phantom AssassinYatoro
Phantom Assassin
Void Spirit
Void SpiritgpK~
43% · 166 games62% · 151 game
TidehunterCollapse
Tidehunter
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerDM
56% · 43 games56% · 139 games
InvokerTORONTOTOKYO
Invoker
Lion
LionSave-
43% · 183 games54% · 86 games
Shadow DemonMiposhka
Shadow Demon
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern1ls
44% · 74 games50% · 116 games
Dark WillowMira
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 67%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2