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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:1
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Spiritwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
gpK~ · 13 games
38%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
yamich · 12 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 10 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 9 games
89%
Weaver
Weaversignature
yamich · 9 games
78%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
1ls · 8 games
75%
Bane
Banesignature
Xakoda · 8 games
63%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Xakoda · 8 games
38%

Team Spirit

Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 19 games
74%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
58%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 11 games
73%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 9 games
78%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 9 games
78%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Mira · 8 games
88%
Io
Iosignature
Mira · 7 games
86%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
426 picks · 272 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
412 picks · 549 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
370 picks · 428 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
342 picks · 702 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
306 picks · 449 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
305 picks · 409 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
270 picks · 396 bans
52%
Weaver
Weaver
261 picks · 310 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total77% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Virtus.pro 23%Team Spirit 77%
The model gave 77% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 77%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1