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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tinysignature
Kiritych · 14 games
79%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kiritych · 13 games
31%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 12 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fng · 11 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Antares · 10 games
40%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Noticed · 10 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 9 games
44%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fng · 9 games
78%

Team Spirit

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 28 games
54%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 22 games
82%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 20 games
70%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 19 games
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 19 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 17 games
82%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Mira · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
348 picks · 258 bans
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
342 picks · 279 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
331 picks · 448 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
315 picks · 365 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
315 picks · 308 bans
50%
Windranger
Windranger
307 picks · 432 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
302 picks · 519 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
299 picks · 486 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 55%
Hero pool strength58% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total70% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:31
Virtus.pro 38%Team Spirit 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 53:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingKiritych
47% · 138 games46% · 31 game
Drow RangerSatanic
Drow Ranger
Lycan
LycanNoticed
63% · 26 games48% · 68 games
Sand KingMalik
Sand King
Sniper
SniperSquad1x
54% · 48 games41% · 217 games
TinyLarl
Tiny
Lion
LionAntares
47% · 112 games58% · 45 games
Elder TitanMiposhka
Elder Titan
Omniknight
OmniknightImmersion
61% · 37 games
Game 2prediction missed29:9
Virtus.pro 38%Team Spirit 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 30:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistKiritych
54% · 114 games47% · 44 games
MedusaSatanic
Medusa
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSquad1x
50% · 110 games56% · 106 games
InvokerLarl
Invoker
Enigma
EnigmaNoticed
55% · 95 games51% · 287 games
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
Centaur Warrunner
Enchantress
EnchantressAntares
46% · 207 games41% · 194 games
ClockwerkMiposhka
Clockwerk
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorImmersion
52% · 105 games
Game 3prediction correct9:29
Virtus.pro 39%Team Spirit 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 24:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightKiritych
51% · 187 games57% · 128 games
AlchemistSatanic
Alchemist
Pangolier
PangolierSquad1x
43% · 218 games51% · 117 games
SniperLarl
Sniper
Visage
VisageNoticed
52% · 38 games50% · 236 games
MarsMalik
Mars
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorImmersion
55% · 50 games45% · 126 games
JakiroMiposhka
Jakiro
Tusk
TuskAntares
49% · 114 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 70%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3