DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:2series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Jakiro
Fly · 33 games
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
Muertaoften banned
Timado · 22 games
Tiny
Hellscream · 22 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 20 games
Primal Beast
SabeRLight- · 20 games
Warlock
Fly · 20 games
Puckoften banned
Abed · 19 games
Team Spirit
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 32 games
Jakirosignature
Panto · 27 games
Ringmaster
rue · 23 games
Tusk
rue · 23 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 21 game
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 19 games
Batridersignature
Collapse · 18 games
Pucksignature
Larl · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
528 picks · 319 bans
Phoenix
492 picks · 585 bans
Tiny
439 picks · 357 bans
Jakiro
395 picks · 296 bans
Rubick
391 picks · 215 bans
Tusk
345 picks · 311 bans
Puck
339 picks · 864 bans
Beastmaster
334 picks · 852 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total84% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:43
Virtus.pro 32%Team Spirit 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 46:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerTimado
Death ProphetCollapse
PuckAbed
KezYatoro
AxeSabeRLight-
PangolierLarl
PhoenixFly
Grimstrokerue
HoodwinkHellscream
Muertanot me
Game 2prediction correct20:43
Virtus.pro 28%Team Spirit 72%
The model gave 72% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaTimado
SnapfireLarl
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
AlchemistYatoro
TinyAbed
SlardarCollapse
RubickHellscream
Grimstrokerue
Winter WyvernFly
Batridernot me
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 84%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2