Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Uniqueloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Lionsignature
Save- · 13 games
Oraclesignature
1ls · 8 games
Timbersawsignature
DM · 8 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Nightfall · 6 games
Marsoften banned
DM · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
1ls · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
DM · 4 games
Enchantressoften banned
1ls · 4 games
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
430 picks · 960 bans
Void Spirit
393 picks · 553 bans
Death Prophet
356 picks · 709 bans
Mars
337 picks · 569 bans
Grimstroke
313 picks · 302 bans
Tusk
295 picks · 210 bans
Earth Spirit
288 picks · 284 bans
Lion
271 picks · 143 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 54%
Hero pool strength60% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:12
Virtus.pro 67%Team Unique 33%
The model gave 67% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 32:33.
Game 2prediction correct20:4
Virtus.pro 67%Team Unique 33%
The model gave 67% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 29:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 67%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2