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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
UALEIKUMNIHAOloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 22 games
55%
Tiny
Tiny
sayuw · 20 games
45%
Rubick
Rubick
sayuw · 17 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Noticed · 16 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
sayuw · 16 games
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
krylat · 16 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Dukalis · 14 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Fng · 13 games
46%

UALEIKUMNIHAO

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Shergarat · 14 games
57%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 12 games
58%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
b1kA · 12 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
Mary_y · 10 games
50%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
b1kA · 9 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Palantimos · 9 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Mary_y · 8 games
75%
Doom
Doomsignature
Shergarat · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
697 picks · 597 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
562 picks · 493 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
461 picks · 1116 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
451 picks · 829 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
408 picks · 1047 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
387 picks · 837 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
385 picks · 550 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
385 picks · 210 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% UALEIKUMNIHAO
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:10
Virtus.pro 67%UALEIKUMNIHAO 33%
The model gave 67% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 31:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistKiritych
46% · 197 games57% · 163 games
PuckChira JUNIOR
Puck
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSquad1x
52% · 230 games52% · 47 games
SvenPalantimos
Sven
Timbersaw
TimbersawNoticed
43% · 199 games54% · 195 games
DoomShergarat
Doom
Techies
TechiesFng
49% · 192 games55% · 170 games
Disruptorb1kA
Disruptor
Pugna
Pugnasayuw
47% · 96 games43% · 339 games
RubickMary_y
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct18:23
Virtus.pro 68%UALEIKUMNIHAO 32%
The model gave 68% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 41:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaKiritych
57% · 117 games51% · 229 games
DoomShergarat
Doom
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSquad1x
51% · 183 games37% · 55 games
WindrangerPalantimos
Windranger
Underlord
UnderlordNoticed
48% · 108 games59% · 179 games
PuckChira JUNIOR
Puck
Pugna
Pugnasayuw
52% · 77 games47% · 203 games
EnchantressMary_y
Enchantress
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFng
48% · 314 games47% · 133 games
Skywrath Mageb1kA
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 82%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2