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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 26 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
61%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Rein · 21 game
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Daxak · 21 game
52%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Daxak · 18 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 16 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 14 games
71%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Antares · 14 games
57%

Wildcard Gaming

Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Bignum · 24 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 23 games
35%
Puck
Pucksignature
RCY · 22 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 21 game
48%
Chen
Chensignature
Speeed · 20 games
80%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
YamSun · 20 games
45%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Speeed · 19 games
58%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
521 picks · 551 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
412 picks · 427 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
360 picks · 378 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
342 picks · 510 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
321 picks · 709 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
312 picks · 563 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
307 picks · 197 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
295 picks · 437 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:22
Virtus.pro 48%Wildcard Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 40:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerV-Tune
46% · 103 games54% · 118 games
AbaddonYamSun
Abaddon
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDaxak
57% · 162 games46% · 61 game
SlardarFayde
Slardar
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSerenada
46% · 204 games51% · 220 games
Storm SpiritRCY
Storm Spirit
Marci
Marcinot me
47% · 160 games55% · 226 games
BatriderSpeeed
Batrider
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonRein
49% · 230 games49% · 234 games
Dark WillowBignum
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed19:8
Virtus.pro 45%Wildcard Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 24:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSerenada
44% · 344 games51% · 306 games
GyrocopterYamSun
Gyrocopter
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendV-Tune
54% · 124 games41% · 209 games
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
Centaur Warrunner
Bristleback
BristlebackDaxak
52% · 266 games55% · 277 games
Monkey KingRCY
Monkey King
Naga Siren
Naga SirenRein
52% · 135 games46% · 203 games
Nature's ProphetSpeeed
Nature's Prophet
Ringmaster
Ringmasternot me
39% · 201 game67% · 75 games
BaneBignum
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 54%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2