DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 1:0series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Xxanblloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kiritych · 15 games
Clockwerkoften banned
aik · 12 games
Underlord
Noticed · 9 games
Phoenixsignature
Fng · 8 games
Enchantresssignature
Antares · 7 games
Batridersignature
Antares · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
Squad1x · 6 games
Sand Kingsignature
Squad1x · 6 games
xanbl
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
399 picks · 495 bans
Muerta
373 picks · 283 bans
Tusk
369 picks · 414 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 556 bans
Batrider
325 picks · 381 bans
Beastmaster
322 picks · 722 bans
Lion
311 picks · 144 bans
Phoenix
293 picks · 253 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:23
Virtus.pro 89%xanbl 11%
The model gave 89% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 44:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 89%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1