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DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:2
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 27 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 19 games
53%
Puck
Pucksignature
Abed · 18 games
72%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 16 games
50%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Fly · 15 games
60%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Timado · 14 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Daxak · 14 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Abed · 14 games
50%

Zero Tenacity

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Se · 41 game
61%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 39 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 30 games
60%
Underlord
Underlord
Nefrit · 26 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 25 games
64%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nande · 24 games
42%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 23 games
74%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
561 picks · 693 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
509 picks · 342 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
482 picks · 663 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
448 picks · 535 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
419 picks · 145 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
403 picks · 191 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
377 picks · 519 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
373 picks · 512 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total71% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:17
Virtus.pro 60%Zero Tenacity 40%
The model gave 60% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 44:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzTimado
57% · 18 games65% · 108 games
Naga SirenKami
Naga Siren
Sand King
Sand KingAbed
43% · 144 games53% · 302 games
TinyWorick
Tiny
Mars
MarsSabeRLight-
40% · 156 games51% · 86 games
UnderlordNefrit
Underlord
Weaver
WeaverHellscream
41% · 59 games52% · 107 games
Skywrath MagedEsire
Skywrath Mage
Jakiro
JakiroFly
45% · 310 games65% · 84 games
RubickMoOz
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed44:36
Virtus.pro 60%Zero Tenacity 40%
The model gave 60% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 1:02:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightTimado
50% · 427 games50% · 48 games
ClinkzKami
Clinkz
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainAbed
44% · 232 games53% · 255 games
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
Tidehunter
TidehunterSabeRLight-
43% · 222 games47% · 62 games
Earth SpiritWorick
Earth Spirit
Chen
ChenFly
58% · 199 games50% · 524 games
JakiroMoOz
Jakiro
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonHellscream
55% · 283 games49% · 474 games
TuskdEsire
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed18:38
Virtus.pro 62%Zero Tenacity 38%
The model gave 62% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 43:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautTimado
47% · 126 games51% · 198 games
UrsaKami
Ursa
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAbed
50% · 182 games47% · 245 games
Queen of PainWorick
Queen of Pain
Sand King
Sand KingSabeRLight-
51% · 219 games51% · 230 games
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
Warlock
WarlockFly
54% · 431 game49% · 473 games
JakiroMoOz
Jakiro
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonHellscream
55% · 250 games43% · 62 games
Nyx AssassindEsire
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 71%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3