Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionVVirtusProPolarwin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Its Okayloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
VirtusProPolar
No games played over 6 months.
Its Okay
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Earth Spirit
4 picks · 1 bans
Mirana
4 picks · 2 bans
Vengeful Spirit
4 picks · 2 bans
Brewmaster
3 picks · 2 bans
Puck
3 picks · 7 bans
Tiny
3 picks · 2 bans
Void Spirit
3 picks · 5 bans
Weaver
3 picks · 3 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% VirtusProPolar
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% VirtusProPolar
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtusProPolar · 50%
Series resultVirtusProPolar 2:0
Series predictioncorrect