Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Neon Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vision
No games played over 6 months.
Neon Esports
Storm Spiritsignature
Ken · 10 games
Void Spiritsignature
Ken · 8 games
Alchemistsignature
FortuneSoul · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 6 games
Rubick
Hishge · 6 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 5 games
Silencer
Hated · 5 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
FortuneSoul · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
711 picks · 512 bans
Disruptor
578 picks · 509 bans
Doom
563 picks · 1094 bans
Beastmaster
546 picks · 1232 bans
Techies
542 picks · 594 bans
Ember Spirit
468 picks · 1048 bans
Pangolier
467 picks · 927 bans
Enchantress
459 picks · 660 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:8
Vision 25%Neon Esports 75%
The model gave 75% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 19:46.
Game 2prediction correct33:35
Vision 25%Neon Esports 75%
The model gave 75% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 49:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 75%
Series resultNeon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2