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European Pro League Season 38 · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigyloss 0:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
4ikibamboniwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

VP.Prodigy

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 28 games
64%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 27 games
37%
Tiny
Tiny
raregods · 26 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
cutie · 17 games
65%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
takizawa · 17 games
24%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 16 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Serenada · 16 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Katsura · 16 games
63%

4ikibamboni

Tusk
Tusksignature
waveformn · 8 games
63%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Ankou · 7 games
29%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
yowaai · 7 games
43%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
waveformn · 6 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ani-san · 5 games
80%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 5 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
Ethereal · 5 games
40%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Ethereal · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
635 picks · 437 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
573 picks · 316 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
483 picks · 579 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
451 picks · 387 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
446 picks · 655 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
355 picks · 525 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
347 picks · 1031 bans
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
341 picks · 408 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% VP.Prodigy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% VP.Prodigy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:40
VP.Prodigy 51%4ikibamboni 49%
The model gave 51% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by 4ikibamboni in 40:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSerenada
52% · 128 games66% · 29 games
Drow Rangeryowaai
Drow Ranger
Spectre
Spectrecutie
57% · 3 games50% · 243 games
PuckEthereal
Puck
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerMiyaoo
50% · 166 games51% · 114 games
TidehunterAnkou
Tidehunter
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterraregods
47% · 44 games45% · 147 games
Rubickwaveformn
Rubick
Snapfire
SnapfireJANTER
49% · 224 games45% · 32 games
Ogre Magiani-san
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction missed4:26
VP.Prodigy 56%4ikibamboni 44%
The model gave 56% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by 4ikibamboni in 26:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone Druidcutie
69% · 54 games47% · 57 games
Necrophosyowaai
Necrophos
Pangolier
PangolierMiyaoo
47% · 228 games50% · 113 games
ViperEthereal
Viper
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSerenada
54% · 129 games43% · 167 games
UnderlordAnkou
Underlord
Snapfire
Snapfireraregods
51% · 197 games47% · 193 games
Windrangerwaveformn
Windranger
Bane
BaneJANTER
53% · 133 games44% · 211 games
Clockwerkani-san
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteVP.Prodigy · 56%
Series result4ikibamboni 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2