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CIS Battle 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigywin 2:0
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AVULUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

VP.Prodigy

Axe
Axe
takizawa · 9 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 9 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 9 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 9 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
armageddon · 8 games
13%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
cutie · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
armageddon · 7 games
14%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
raregods · 7 games
14%

AVULUS

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 17 games
47%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 17 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
dEsire · 17 games
59%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Lorenof · 15 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 14 games
57%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Xibbe · 14 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Smiling Knight · 14 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
617 picks · 606 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
566 picks · 226 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
535 picks · 713 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
523 picks · 318 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
481 picks · 239 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
470 picks · 545 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
426 picks · 590 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
406 picks · 595 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 41%
Hero pool strength58% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total78% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:17
VP.Prodigy 34%AVULUS 66%
The model gave 66% on AVULUS — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 44:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
Clinkzcutie
59% · 16 games39% · 58 games
Sniperdualrazee
Sniper
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendSerenada
57% · 122 games51% · 140 games
Phantom Assassinssnovv1
Phantom Assassin
Mars
Marstakizawa
48% · 198 games53% · 183 games
TimbersawMikSa`
Timbersaw
Ringmaster
Ringmasterraregods
50% · 265 games46% · 395 games
Warlockasdekor_r
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroJANTER
51% · 419 games51% · 244 games
Shadow ShamanWein
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed24:15
VP.Prodigy 33%AVULUS 67%
The model gave 67% on AVULUS — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 40:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
Clinkzcutie
62% · 32 games50% · 194 games
TimbersawMikSa`
Timbersaw
Beastmaster
Beastmastertakizawa
55% · 375 games46% · 213 games
Windrangerssnovv1
Windranger
Huskar
HuskarSerenada
48% · 63 games41% · 136 games
Kunkkadualrazee
Kunkka
Batrider
Batriderraregods
52% · 280 games53% · 337 games
Ringmasterasdekor_r
Ringmaster
Jakiro
JakiroJANTER
49% · 521 game47% · 391 game
TuskWein
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 78%
Series resultVP.Prodigy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2