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DreamLeague Season 28. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigyloss 0:1
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Cheeki_Breekiwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

VP.Prodigy

Axe
Axe
takizawa · 12 games
42%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 10 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 10 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 9 games
44%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
cutie · 8 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfire
armageddon · 8 games
13%
Windranger
Windranger
raregods · 8 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Serenada · 7 games
43%

Cheeki_Breeki

Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Malik · 3 games
33%
Weaver
Weaver
OneJey · 2 games
100%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
Xakoda · 1 game
0%
Axe
Axe
Malik · 1 game
0%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Xakoda · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
560 picks · 663 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
504 picks · 334 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
487 picks · 662 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 528 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
437 picks · 152 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
414 picks · 198 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
380 picks · 514 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
367 picks · 498 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Cheeki_Breeki
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Cheeki_Breeki
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:28
VP.Prodigy 26%Cheeki_Breeki 74%
The model gave 74% on Cheeki_Breeki — the game was taken by Cheeki_Breeki in 39:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteCheeki_Breeki · 74%
Series resultCheeki_Breeki 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1