DreamLeague Season 28. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigyloss 0:1series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 0:1
GBGolden Baryswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
VP.Prodigy
Axe
takizawa · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 10 games
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 10 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 9 games
Abaddonsignature
cutie · 8 games
Snapfire
armageddon · 8 games
Windranger
raregods · 8 games
Hoodwink
armageddon · 7 games
Golden Barys
Skywrath Mage
ArrOw · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
563 picks · 645 bans
Tusk
504 picks · 327 bans
Dragon Knight
490 picks · 681 bans
Snapfire
450 picks · 166 bans
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 529 bans
Hoodwink
426 picks · 203 bans
Mars
391 picks · 526 bans
Gyrocopter
370 picks · 500 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 60%
Hero pool strength60% Golden Barys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% VP.Prodigy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:37
VP.Prodigy 60%Golden Barys 40%
The model gave 60% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by Golden Barys in 57:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckSerenada
LionArrOw
Beastmastertakizawa
Ringmasterraregods
TuskJANTER
Model check result
Model favoriteVP.Prodigy · 75%
Series resultGolden Barys 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1