Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigyloss 1:2series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HellRaiserswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
VP.Prodigy
Undyingoften banned
dSa · 9 games
Rubick
forcemajor · 7 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Noticed · 6 games
Void Spiritsignature
Larl · 6 games
Puckoften banned
Larl · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
dSa · 4 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Noticed · 3 games
Oracle
dSa · 3 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
78 picks · 160 bans
Puck
77 picks · 185 bans
Earth Spirit
66 picks · 57 bans
Void Spirit
59 picks · 113 bans
Rubick
52 picks · 29 bans
Undying
51 picks · 73 bans
Phoenix
49 picks · 67 bans
Monkey King
48 picks · 114 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength55% VP.Prodigy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% VP.Prodigy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:33
VP.Prodigy 69%HellRaisers 31%
The model gave 69% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 40:57.
Game 2prediction correct29:35
VP.Prodigy 69%HellRaisers 31%
The model gave 69% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 46:57.
Game 3prediction missed26:32
VP.Prodigy 69%HellRaisers 31%
The model gave 69% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 47:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteVP.Prodigy · 69%
Series resultHellRaisers 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3