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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigyloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Imperial Pro Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

VP.Prodigy

Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Noticed · 11 games
73%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
dSa · 11 games
45%
Rubick
Rubick
forcemajor · 9 games
44%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Larl · 9 games
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
dSa · 7 games
43%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
forcemajor · 5 games
80%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
dSa · 5 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Larl · 5 games
40%

Imperial Pro Gaming

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Muka · 12 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Askold · 10 games
70%
Chen
Chensignature
antoha · 8 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Muka · 8 games
75%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
antoha · 8 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Askold · 8 games
75%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 8 games
50%
Io
Iooften banned
antoha · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
264 picks · 543 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
238 picks · 301 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
218 picks · 388 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
205 picks · 158 bans
48%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
175 picks · 312 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
171 picks · 543 bans
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
171 picks · 202 bans
58%
Wraith King
Wraith King
168 picks · 221 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% Imperial Pro Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Imperial Pro Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:32
VP.Prodigy 42%Imperial Pro Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Imperial Pro Gaming — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 50:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNoticed
48% · 15 games52% · 25 games
GrimstrokeAskold
Grimstroke
Morphling
MorphlingLarl
58% · 17 games52% · 21 game
TidehunterSuperNova
Tidehunter
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanforcemajor
43% · 28 games52% · 17 games
ClockwerkMuka
Clockwerk
Brewmaster
BrewmasterdSa
43% · 3 games
Game 2prediction correct20:29
VP.Prodigy 44%Imperial Pro Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Imperial Pro Gaming — the game was taken by Imperial Pro Gaming in 39:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingLarl
52% · 13 games53% · 18 games
Storm SpiritAskold
Storm Spirit
Riki
RikiNoticed
41% · 9 games42% · 16 games
Nature's ProphetSuperNova
Nature's Prophet
Phoenix
PhoenixdSa
56% · 13 games44% · 21 game
ClockwerkMuka
Clockwerk
Rubick
Rubickforcemajor
59% · 20 games
Game 3prediction correct10:38
VP.Prodigy 41%Imperial Pro Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Imperial Pro Gaming — the game was taken by Imperial Pro Gaming in 35:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNoticed
44% · 11 games68% · 19 games
Ember SpiritAskold
Ember Spirit
Invoker
InvokerLarl
35% · 9 games57% · 13 games
UnderlordSuperNova
Underlord
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerforcemajor
little data61% · 18 games
ClockwerkMuka
Clockwerk
Grimstroke
GrimstrokedSa
36% · 30 games
Model check result
Model favoriteImperial Pro Gaming · 58%
Series resultImperial Pro Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3