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EPL Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigyloss 1:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Inner Circlewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

VP.Prodigy

Axe
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 14 games
36%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 12 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 10 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 9 games
44%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
cutie · 8 games
63%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
raregods · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
JANTER · 8 games
25%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 8 games
38%

Inner Circle

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 18 games
39%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 18 games
39%
Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 18 games
44%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 17 games
24%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fernans · 14 games
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Fernans · 13 games
31%
Warlock
Warlock
flacko · 13 games
31%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Norma · 11 games
18%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
533 picks · 786 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
500 picks · 345 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
462 picks · 636 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
449 picks · 559 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
375 picks · 701 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
354 picks · 565 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
341 picks · 463 bans
48%
Slardar
Slardar
323 picks · 895 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 42%
Hero pool strength55% VP.Prodigy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:20
VP.Prodigy 41%Inner Circle 59%
The model gave 59% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 37:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pudge
PudgeRain
55% · 85 games47% · 22 games
Omniknight423
Omniknight
Clinkz
Clinkzcutie
61% · 59 games50% · 216 games
Beastmasterniche
Beastmaster
Tidehunter
Tidehuntertakizawa
58% · 230 games44% · 43 games
Brewmasterlaise
Brewmaster
Ringmaster
Ringmasterraregods
49% · 330 games42% · 231 game
WarlockSe
Warlock
Elder Titan
Elder TitanJANTER
52% · 84 games45% · 276 games
TuskDaze
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct9:31
VP.Prodigy 38%Inner Circle 62%
The model gave 62% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 29:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tidehunter
Tidehuntertakizawa
47% · 221 game53% · 119 games
Shadow Fiend423
Shadow Fiend
Abaddon
Abaddoncutie
47% · 289 games48% · 256 games
Storm Spiritniche
Storm Spirit
Pudge
PudgeRain
48% · 85 games49% · 233 games
Marslaise
Mars
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mageraregods
49% · 94 games55% · 138 games
ChenSe
Chen
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonJANTER
51% · 314 games55% · 257 games
TinyDaze
Tiny
Game 3prediction correct8:29
VP.Prodigy 39%Inner Circle 61%
The model gave 61% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 22:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendcutie
52% · 175 games54% · 240 games
Abaddon423
Abaddon
Tidehunter
Tidehuntertakizawa
53% · 277 games48% · 314 games
Beastmasterniche
Beastmaster
Leshrac
LeshracRain
49% · 203 games53% · 156 games
Phoenixlaise
Phoenix
Windranger
Windrangerraregods
44% · 213 games52% · 341 game
TinyDaze
Tiny
Tusk
TuskJANTER
48% · 547 games47% · 364 games
WarlockSe
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 71%
Series resultInner Circle 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3