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European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigywin 2:0
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HULIGANIloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

VP.Prodigy

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 19 games
74%
Axe
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
40%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 14 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 13 games
54%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 11 games
55%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
cutie · 10 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 10 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 10 games
40%

HULIGANI

Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 45 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 42 games
67%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 37 games
65%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 36 games
69%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
slimeyao · 34 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
slimeyao · 34 games
56%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 33 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 33 games
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
610 picks · 938 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
517 picks · 418 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
473 picks · 618 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
427 picks · 568 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
426 picks · 954 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
403 picks · 250 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
398 picks · 451 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 661 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 62%
Hero pool strength56% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total72% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:16
VP.Prodigy 37%HULIGANI 63%
The model gave 63% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 46:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
Clinkzcutie
49% · 79 games55% · 56 games
Kezv1olent-
Kez
Brewmaster
Brewmastertakizawa
47% · 101 game49% · 344 games
Storm SpiritMirage
Storm Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingKatsura
47% · 199 games50% · 233 games
SlardarBb3px
Slardar
Ringmaster
Ringmasterraregods
49% · 384 games49% · 570 games
Jakirosayuw
Jakiro
Tusk
TuskJANTER
45% · 500 games67% · 60 games
Treant ProtectorRESPECT
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed24:21
VP.Prodigy 40%HULIGANI 60%
The model gave 60% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 40:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendcutie
54% · 219 games47% · 126 games
Svenv1olent-
Sven
Razor
Razortakizawa
48% · 94 games51% · 250 games
BeastmasterMirage
Beastmaster
Invoker
InvokerKatsura
55% · 113 games49% · 91 game
BrewmasterBb3px
Brewmaster
Tiny
Tinyraregods
46% · 519 games53% · 271 game
Shadow Shamansayuw
Shadow Shaman
Undying
UndyingJANTER
48% · 156 games49% · 363 games
JakiroRESPECT
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 72%
Series resultVP.Prodigy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2