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European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigywin 2:1
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
NPC's IRLloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

VP.Prodigy

Axe
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 13 games
54%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 13 games
69%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
raregods · 11 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 11 games
36%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 10 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 10 games
40%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
raregods · 10 games
40%

NPC's IRL

Axe
Axeoften banned
SkyLark · 2 games
0%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Focus · 2 games
0%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
SsaSpartan · 2 games
50%
Silencer
Silencer
SsaSpartan · 2 games
0%
Tusk
Tusk
Atoufix · 2 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Focus · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SkyLark · 1 game
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
SsaSpartan · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
592 picks · 926 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
540 picks · 416 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
494 picks · 639 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
493 picks · 654 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
431 picks · 937 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
391 picks · 648 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
384 picks · 530 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
377 picks · 231 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 33%
Hero pool strength55% VP.Prodigy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% VP.Prodigy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:36
VP.Prodigy 65%NPC's IRL 35%
The model gave 65% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by NPC's IRL in 31:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassincutie
52% · 210 games52% · 51 game
ClinkzFocus
Clinkz
Largo
Largotakizawa
60% · 30 games51% · 155 games
EarthshakerNande
Earthshaker
Sand King
Sand KingKatsura
52% · 208 games47% · 446 games
JakiroSsaSpartan
Jakiro
Disruptor
DisruptorJANTER
49% · 298 games45% · 395 games
TuskAtoufix
Tusk
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonraregods
50% · 301 game
Game 2prediction correct33:17
VP.Prodigy 68%NPC's IRL 32%
The model gave 68% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 38:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
Clinkzcutie
63% · 61 game45% · 197 games
GyrocopterFocus
Gyrocopter
Largo
Largotakizawa
56% · 38 games50% · 60 games
InvokerNande
Invoker
Rubick
RubickKatsura
58% · 79 games45% · 57 games
WeaverAtoufix
Weaver
Ringmaster
Ringmasterraregods
48% · 323 games43% · 410 games
JakiroSsaSpartan
Jakiro
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanJANTER
52% · 223 games
Game 3prediction correct56:35
VP.Prodigy 66%NPC's IRL 34%
The model gave 66% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 45:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddoncutie
49% · 195 games58% · 62 games
ClinkzFocus
Clinkz
Invoker
InvokerKatsura
51% · 79 games57% · 63 games
Faceless VoidNande
Faceless Void
Batrider
Batridertakizawa
44% · 190 games48% · 334 games
RingmasterAtoufix
Ringmaster
Tiny
Tinyraregods
50% · 306 games45% · 528 games
TuskSsaSpartan
Tusk
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanJANTER
51% · 217 games
Model check result
Model favoriteVP.Prodigy · 79%
Series resultVP.Prodigy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3